Not all signals are created equal. Here's what separates a useful deal-flow signal from noise — and why GitHub engineering activity is one of the strongest leading indicators available.
Three criteria: 1) It's a LEADING indicator (predicts before events happen). 2) It's OBJECTIVE (not self-reported). 3) It's TIMELY (refreshed at least weekly). GitHub engineering activity scores high on all three.
Crunchbase data is self-reported (founders or PR firms submit it) and lagging (rounds appear after they close). GitHub data is objective (code doesn't lie) and leading (acceleration happens before the raise).
Hiring is a good secondary signal. But it lags behind code — a startup ships for months before it hires a PR person. GitHub is the earliest signal; hiring confirms the momentum.
Press mentions. By the time a startup is in TechCrunch or Forbes, the round is usually closed. It's not a signal — it's a confirmation of what already happened.
Weekly. GitHub is noisy at the daily level (weekend commit dips, sprint-cycle patterns). Weekly aggregation smooths the noise and reveals real trends.
Get the top 20 trending startups across 20 sectors. No credit card required.
Get the 5 names →