What the Simulator Shows
Enter your current cap table, founder shares, option pool, and investor shares, then add future rounds with their valuations. The simulator shows how ownership percentages change after each round: how much the founders dilute, how much the option pool needs to grow to stay competitive for hires, and what each investor class ends up with at the end of the sequence.
Dilution is not a failure; it is the price of compounding value. What matters is whether the value created per round outpaces the percentage given away. A founder who owns 60% of a $5M company has $3M of paper value; a founder who owns 25% of a $200M company has $50M. The simulator helps you see the trade clearly instead of reacting to each term sheet in isolation.
How to Interpret the Results
Watch three things. First, founder ownership across the full sequence: healthy trajectories keep founders above roughly 10-15% by exit, and term sheets that push founders below that threshold early create misaligned incentives. Second, option pool top-ups: every round typically expands the pool by 10-15%, and the dilution from that expansion is often negotiated as a founder cost. Third, investor ownership: later investors usually demand 15-25% per round, and the simulator shows how those demands stack.
Use Cases
- Founders planning a raise: model how much to raise versus how much dilution you can afford before committing to a target valuation.
- Employees evaluating offers: estimate what an option grant is worth after projected future dilution, not just at today's valuation.
- Investors modeling ownership: check that a check size delivers the ownership percentage your fund targets at each stage.
- Term sheet comparison: run two competing term sheets through the same round sequence and compare end-state ownership.
Timing the Raise
The same company raises the same amount at different terms depending on when it goes to market. Raising at peak momentum, when growth, hiring, and engineering output are all accelerating, commands better valuations and less dilution. GitDealFlow's engineering signals help you optimize when to raise: commit velocity, contributor growth, and repository expansion across 350+ startups show when a team's story is peaking, typically 21-47 days before the round hits the press.
How to Use This Tool in a Deal Flow Workflow
This calculator exists to be embedded in a sourcing or diligence workflow, not used once and closed. The numbers it produces are the same primitives the GitDealFlow dataset is built on: 350+ startup GitHub organizations tracked across 15 sectors, refreshed weekly. When a target company is being evaluated, run its figures here, then compare against the sector baseline in the research dataset. The disciplined pattern is signal first (breakouts surface 21 to 47 days before the round), then arithmetic (does the unit economics justify a meeting), then process (memo, checklist, decision).
Related Tools
- GitHub momentum checker (any repo)
- All investor tools
- Due diligence checklists
- Research datasets (CC BY 4.0)
Frequently Asked Questions
How many rounds can I simulate?
Up to 5 rounds from seed to Series C. Includes option pool top-ups and employee grants.
What is a typical dilution per round?
Seed rounds typically dilute 15-25%, Series A 20-30%, and later rounds 10-20%. Total founder dilution from founding to exit commonly reaches 80-90%.
What is an option pool top-up?
A fresh allocation of shares reserved for future employee grants, usually added at each funding round and often diluting founders more than investors.