Estimate your potential ROI from an early-stage startup investment. Enter check size, valuation, and exit assumptions to see multiple scenarios.
This calculator models a single angel or seed investment from check to exit. It takes your check size, the company's pre-money valuation, an assumed exit value, and your expected dilution before exit, then returns your ownership percentage, your diluted ownership, exit proceeds, ROI multiple, IRR over a 7-year horizon, and four exit scenarios (bear, base, bull, and home run).
The mechanics: your ownership is your check divided by the post-money valuation. Future rounds dilute that stake โ the dilution slider (10-70%) estimates how much of your position later investors, option pool top-ups, and new shares will consume before the exit. The scenarios then show what your diluted stake is worth at 50% of your exit assumption, the base case, 3x, and 10x.
How to read the results: an IRR above 20-25% is the working bar for early-stage checks, which means the exit multiple needs to clear roughly 3-4x over seven years. If the base case shows a multiple below 2x, the round is priced for a modest outcome โ fine for income investors, wrong for angel portfolios that depend on a few 10x winners. Always stress-test the exit value: small changes in exit assumptions move proceeds far more than small changes in check size.
Tip: pair the math with momentum. GitDealFlow tracks commit velocity, contributor growth, and repository expansion across 4,200+ startups and sends five names every Sunday โ engineering acceleration typically precedes fundraises by 21-47 days, which is exactly the window where valuations are still reasonable.
Dilution is the reduction in your ownership percentage caused by new shares issued in later rounds and option pool top-ups. A 30% dilution assumption means your pre-exit stake shrinks by roughly a third. Early-stage investors typically model 20-50% total dilution between their entry and a Series B/C exit.
Angel and seed investments are illiquid and typically return between 7 and 10 years after the check is written. Seven years is a standard midpoint for computing an IRR on early-stage venture positions.
No. It is a scenario tool for education and planning. Real outcomes depend on liquidation preferences, participation rights, follow-on rounds, and market conditions โ review any investment with qualified advisors.