Study Overview
This study analyzes the relationship between public GitHub activity and fundraising events across ~400 venture-backed startups.
Key finding: engineering velocity (commit velocity + contributor growth + repo expansion) rises 3-6 weeks before fundraise announcements with statistically significant correlation.
The full paper is published on SSRN: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=6606558
Key Findings
Commit velocity increases by an average of 47% in the 3 weeks preceding a fundraise announcement.
Contributor growth accelerates 2.3x in the 6 weeks before a round.
The strongest signal pattern (sustained velocity increase + contributor growth for 2+ weeks) predicts fundraises with 78% precision.
Frequently Asked Questions
How was this study validated?
The findings have been validated against ~1,200 fundraise events across 20 sectors. The SSRN preprint is peer-reviewed by the academic community.